San Francisco Bay
Area Chapter
of the American Statistical Association
Seminar
Speaker |
Nicholas P. Jewell, Professor of
Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley |
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Title |
What are my Chances of Surviving an
Avalanche? |
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Date and Time |
4:00PM to 6:00PM on Thursday, March 21, 2013.
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Location |
Room 2 in Haviland
Hall at UC Berkeley. You can see Haviland Hall in this section of the interactive map
online: http://www.berkeley.edu/map/maps/AB34.html |
Abstract: More
than 800 people died from avalanches in Europe and North America over the six
winters from 2003--2009. Avalanche survival curves describe the probability of
survival as a function of burial time. These curves provide the basis for
international recommendations for rescue and resuscitation and for the design
of safety and rescue devices. However, estimation of such curves is
complicated by the fact that the time of death is unknown for individuals who
are not alive when uncovered. Here, i describe the
statistical issues surrounding survival curve estimation, illustrated through a
comprehensive Swiss and Canadian database of avalanche victims over a 25-year
period from 1980--2005. The statistical ideas have broad application to a
variety of other data structures that arise naturally in epidemiology,
demography, and economics.
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