San Francisco Chapter of the American Statistical Association April Seminar


Xin Zhao, Director, Clinical Statistics, J&J Janssen Pharmaceutical R&D


April 29th, 2015  4:30-6:00pm (4:30-5:00pm networking/refreshment; 5-6pm seminar)


Cal State University East Bay in Hayward; SC-N 215 (North Science 215)


Evaluating and Utilizing Probability of Success (POS) through Bayesian Techniques in Drug Development




Decision making is crucial in the pharmaceutical/biotech industry.  At each step of a drug development, we may ask the question “what’s the probability of success (POS)”.  POS quantifies the ability of a clinical trial/program to achieve a desired outcome based on available evidence. Bayesian logic is natural to decision making – a quantitative decision analysis based on probability inference utilizing knowledge of prior events to predict future.  Evaluating and utilizing POS through Bayesian techniques can contribute to strategic decisions regarding further development. In this talk we connect POS with Bayesian concepts in drug development setting, and present case studies where Bayesian POS evaluation can be done during decision making process at study level, compound level, and portfolio level.


Here is a link to the campus map:

There is information on there about parking.